Friday, July 31, 2009

Zherdev's Arbitration Situation By The Numbers

Today is Nik Zherdev's arbitration hearing. The Rangers have offered Zherdev a qualifying offer of around $3.25M, which has been rejected by Zherdev. It is rumored that Zherdev wants at least $4M per season and from the interviews that he's done this summer (here & here) it seems that he and his agent are very confident that they will get the number that they want.

I decided to take a look at the players last season who produced similar to Zherdev (58 points) who are in the same age range.David Booth and Travis Zajac signed their contracts this summer and Michalek signed his long term (6 yrs) deal last summer. These three players have the highest cap hits from the players that I compared Zherdev to, but they all signed contracts that are at least four years in length.



[Click on image to enlarge]

When looking at the above list of players, who would you prefer Zherdev over? Other than Zajac and Weiss, I would take any one of those players over Zherdev - but maybe that's just me.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

One important note - the arbitrator doesn't look at (and both team and player aren't allowed to cite) references to the cap. The comparative number that gets used is the salary for the upcoming (I believe) season.

Puck Central said...

I wasn't aware of that. Then all they have to do is replace the words "cap hit" with, "the average salary per season under the contract this player has are $xxx".

I mean, technically they may not be able to, but since other player salaries & stats are basically the main evidence that both sides use, I think it would be quite naive to think that the agent/team, won't reference other player's average salaries.

Aaron said...

Milan Michalek did not sign this summer. Michalek signed a 6-year deal last year, of which he has 5 years remaining (deal runs through the 2013/2014 season).

Anonymous said...

The average salary over the life of a, for example, six year contract like Michalek isn't relevant for a one year contract coming out of arbitration. Thus, the relevant numbers for each of these players is the 09/10 salary - which for Michalek is 3.5mm - a far cry from 4.33mm.....

NYR Blogger said...

I would take Brown, Booth, or Frolov over Zherdev. All three have a ton of potential.

But thank God this Zherdev thing will be over soon. It should be settled by late next week, consideing the 48 hour limit the team and arbitrator have to come to a decision.

Puck Central said...

I stand corrected about Michalek signing his extension this summer, it was last summer.

As for the average salary, you can bet your house that Zherdev's agent & any decent negotiator is bringing up the average salary of a guy like Zajac, Booth or Michalek.

I don't care if it's a 1 yr deal or a Rick DiPietro 15 yr deal, the bottom line is how much money the comparable player is making and the average salary over the life of the contract is the best way to compare. I'm not saying Zherdev is worth $4M, the purpose of the stats in the table above was to show comparable players that each side is going to throw out there during the arbitration hearing. I still think that Zherdev asking for $4M is a significant overvaluation on his side's end. But, by looking at these numbers it's not totally out of the question.

Anonymous said...

PuckCentral - I think what some of the other posters are saying is that the "bottom line" is what those guys make next year. Not in 3 years, when they're in their "prime". Your comparison would be valid if arb was for more than one or 2 yr contract - but even then the aver. should be compared for a common time period.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. We can twist them however we want to for the purpose of presentation....

Puck Central said...

I agree, I don't necessarily agree w/ the argument I was making from Zherdev's perspective. Just that this is how an arbitrator could view the evidence and rule in his favor.

Frank said...

Either way he won't be back with rangers. Lets just hope they can trade him and get some picks or prospects.